Velocity Ventures and Pear Anderson’s SAILOR 2H2026 report frames the first half of 2026 around a single dominant shock: the US-Israel-Iran Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, which more than doubled jet fuel prices, cut 5.2 million seats from Southeast Asian flight schedules (May–Oct), and pushed war-risk insurance premiums up 50–500%. The fallout rippled across the region as a fuel crisis, currency weakness (record lows for the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso), downgraded GDP forecasts, and inflation spikes. On arrivals, Vietnam is the clear standout (already 41% of its 25-million target by May, consistently 35%+ above 2019), while Thailand slashed its target to 30–34 million and the Philippines remains the slowest to recover. A notable silver lining: as Gulf super-connectors lose airspace reliability, long-haul traffic is rerouting through Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, positioning Southeast Asia as a structural beneficiary of the disruption.
Download our July 2026 Strategy & Investment Outlook Report to explore our key investment themes, portfolio focus, and vision for the Travel & Hospitality ecosystem.
